Gold Price Finds Support as Weaker USD Limits Downside Potential

Gold price inches higher from intraday lows as the US Dollar retreats to a near two-week low.
Investors anticipate potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, providing modest support to the yellow metal today.
Despite brief gains, broader market optimism restricts bullish momentum, keeping Gold price under selling pressure.

Key Takeaways for Gold Price

• Gold price finds support near $3,200 amid a broadly weaker US Dollar environment.
• Fed rate cut expectations weigh on USD, providing minor relief to the precious metal today.
• Positive risk sentiment limits upside, keeping the yellow metal in a cautious trading range.
• Market awaits FOMC speeches, trade developments, and geopolitical news for fresh trading catalysts.
• Technical resistance at $3,250 may cap short-term rallies unless momentum decisively builds.

Market Context: Weak Dollar Supports Gold Price, but Rally Stalls on Risk Sentiment

The Gold price saw a mild recovery after bouncing off the $3,200 support level earlier this session.
This rebound coincided with the USD hitting a two-week low, reflecting growing Fed easing expectations.
Traders are now betting on at least two interest rate cuts in 2025, following soft US data.
Weak inflation and retail sales data have intensified speculation about a more accommodative path from the Fed.
This speculation explains today’s weakening USD and a partial lift for the Gold price in return.

Gold price is still falling and can’t move above the 200-period average near $3,250.
In addition, the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire adds strength to the current risk-on tone.
Gold price is still under pressure and struggling to rise above the 200-period SMA near $3,250.
Moody’s credit rating downgrade of the US to “Aa1” had only a muted impact on the market.
Instead, traders are focused on Fed speeches and evolving geopolitical developments for immediate direction.

Technical Analysis: Resistance Capping Upside Moves in XAU/USD

Gold price is still under pressure and struggling to rise above the 200-period SMA near $3,250.
This resistance has repeatedly rejected intraday rallies, underscoring bearish dominance in the current structure.
If XAU/USD breaks below $3,177 support, further declines toward $3,120 and $3,100 appear increasingly likely.
Below that, downside targets extend to the $3,060 area — last seen in early April trades.
Upside potential remains limited unless a daily close above $3,252 invalidates the ongoing bearish setup.

Expert Opinions: Fed Officials Remain Cautiously Split

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation is off track and warned against cutting rates too soon.
He suggested only one potential rate cut in 2025, depending on data and global trade policies.
New York Fed’s John Williams acknowledged strong data but emphasized forward-looking risks and economic uncertainty.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said tariffs might briefly raise prices and need close watching.
Neel Kashkari voiced concerns about trade uncertainty affecting investor confidence but supported the wait-and-see approach.

Geopolitical Developments: Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope Amid Ongoing Conflict

Israeli forces intensified operations in Khan Yunis, seeking leverage in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas.
Simultaneously, President Trump announced Russia-Ukraine talks are beginning, following separate calls with both leaders.
He said Russia and Ukraine will talk directly, with no outside help or conditions.
These updates have reinforced risk appetite, making it harder for the Gold price to gain traction.
Without fresh risk-off triggers, Gold price could remain under pressure from resurgent equities and investor confidence.

Conclusion: Market Awaits Clarity Before Defining Gold’s Next Move

Despite a softer USD, upside momentum for Gold price remains fragile amid upbeat risk sentiment globally.
Focus now shifts to key Fed speeches and trade updates likely to define near-term gold direction.
Technical resistance near $3,250 must break to enable sustainable gains toward $3,300 and beyond.
Until then, downside levels at $3,177 and $3,120 remain key supports to monitor for bearish continuation.
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